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Talk:Global warming

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Another question about endorsement by national scientific bodies. How relevant are such organizational endorsements, in light of the 1975 NAS endorsement of a looming "ice age"? --Uncle Ed

Again, haven't you done enough research on how scientists base their claims to already know the answer? I believe that the discussion of a looming ice age is based not on local data (meaning, temperature records for the past 100 years), but rather on more global studies of our climate -- e.g. there has been an ice age every x number of years in the past, so we would be due for one now. This is like saying Halley's Comet comes by ever x number of years, so it is due again now. But what if there is some event in space that disrupts the comet's path? That would lead to a different prediction based on a different kind of data. I think this is the case of global warming; the theory is that it has to do with CO2 emissions that did not exist prior to the industrial revolution and whose effect, therefore, would not be found in data on earlier ice ages. Isn't this obvious? IF global warming theory is correct, human activity is affecting natural cycles. The cause of the climate change is different, so the evidence is different. And both claims could be true: based on natural cycles, we are due for another ice-age -- but due to human activity, we are experiencing global warming.

As I said I am not an environmental scientist so I hope others here with special knowledge will correct me if I am wrong. But note, Ed, that I am not putting ANY of this into the article. I am not an environmental science and have not done rigorous research so I am not screwing around with the article (this was the case with my interventions in New Imperialsim, and Irish Potato Famine, in which I was active on the talk pages because I knew something about the phenomena, enough to raise what I thought were good questions, but they were not my fields of expertise so my contributions to the articles themselves were minimal). I think that the only people who put major assertions of fact, or explanations, into an encyclopedia article are people who have the training or have done the research that qualifies them to do so. Slrubenstein

Actually, NAS did not predict a "looming ice age" in 1975. I've added a discussion of this to the "global warming skepticism" article, under the subhead of "global warming vs. global cooling." Sheldon Rampton

Luckily, we have a professional author helping us! I researched the quote and found that the NAS merely said, "...there is a finite probability that a serious worldwide cooling could befall the earth within the next 100 years." [1] (http://www.wmc.care4free.net/sci/iceage/nas-1975) Apparently it was then Science magazine which turned "finite probability" (which for all I know was only 1%) into "likely". I need more help digging into this. --[[User:Ed Po

I'd like to see this article restructured to address various key questions:

How fast, if at all, is the globe warming?
What are the causes of global warming?

Yes, these would be valuable.

What are the consequences of global warming?
What action is being taken to avert global warming?

Or some other structure... Martin

It's more sane to ask what are the consequences of climate change

It seems the article pits (good) environmentalists against (bad) fossil fuel salesmen. Each side claims the scientists support their view.

And that's more or less the state of the debate, since 'global warming' is now a shibboleth. The real issue is climate change, not 'warming'.

Shouldn't the article focus first on the science of the global warming issue?

No, because it's irrelevant. Both sides have made their claims and got their funding. There is some objectivity but no one is listening to it. It's a purely political phrase now. Ecological and scientific interest is moving on to climate change, an entirely different and more serious issue.

Or should it assume the truth of the global warming hypothesis?

Or should it start with a breakdown of who believes what, and then get into the science?

I'm willing to work with just about any outline you all want: Sheldon, Martin, Maveric -- let's come up with an outline, so we don't work at cross purposes. If you want all the hedging and scepticism in a separate article, fine. As long as (a) it's somewhere readily accessible and (b) the controversy isn't swept under the rug in a way that suggests that the Wikipedia endorses GW theory. --Uncle Ed

How about one article on global climate change (which documents known facts about changes in climate, without providing any explanation); one article on the theory in question (which provides an account solely of debates among scientists), and another article on the political controversy (which avoids statements by scientists but which does look at statements by environmental activists, oil company and automobile executives, and government administrations)? Slrubenstein

Yes, that is advisable, as they are three different issues. Climate change is the core question, and the core danger, and no one would care about 'global warming' if it didn't imply drastic climate change and sea level rise.

I'm not sure that it's possible to split things into facts, scientific debate, and political debate. Some scientists take money from oil companies or from environmental lobbies, and even the strongest "facts" are sometimes disputed by extremists on both sides of the argument. Any decision over when an "opinion" becomes a "fact" is going to get difficult quickly... :-( Martin

Okay, you are right -- and I think your proposed outline makes sense. I do think, though, that it is important in reorganizing the article to try to distinguish as best possible observed events, proposed models of and explanations for climate change, and the politics... Slrubenstein

Rate of Global Warming
- historical warming and cooling
- evidence for current warning
- predictions of future warning
- positions of various parties (IPCC, govts, ...)

Causes of Global Warming
- anthropogenic
  - plowing
  - cattle
  - aerosols
  - forests->grassland
  - traffic
- natural effects
  - solar
  - volcanos

Consequences of Global Warming
- flooding
- disease
- more extreme weather
- better harvests in developed countries
  - is this likely? I think mass slaughter of all citizens of such nations by displaced and impoverished citizens of nations destroyed by climate change is much more likely, in an age of bioterror and etc.
- desertification

Actions in response to Global Warming
- Energy Efficiency
- Renewable and Nuclear Energy
- Transport changes
- UNFCCC and Kyoto

External Links & References

Martin

Martin, I'm sure you enjoy a good joke as much as I do, but it seems that not all the "consequences" you list would be detrimental. Was this a slip, a wry jest, or what? Some scientists have said that an additional 1.0 C rise in world temperature would be good for the earth -- like the Medieval climate optimum --Uncle Ed

Sorry, I got a sense of humour for a few seconds there - it won't happen again!

I agree, though: the consequences section would have to include any theoretical bonuses that people have prophesied, as well as doom and destruction... Martin

most of which will be human responses to whoever is 'blamed' for climate change damage... you're talking about 3.5 billion people...

Martin, your outline assumes implicitly that global warming would be a bad thing. You propose a section on "averting" global warming, which implies that it's a danger to be prevented. Am I reading you right? If so, where should we put in the contrary idea that 1.0 to 1.5 C of additional warming over 1999 levels would be a good thing? --Uncle Ed

Ed - you could put it in two places:

under "consequences", you can explain any positive benefits of global warming, and dispute the various negative effects.
under "actions", you can include the arguments made by those who oppose the various actions. For example, one section in actions will be Kyoto, which will probably want to include the position of Bush.

I've changed "avert" to "in response to" - you're right that "avert" is a loaded word. Martin

Perhaps you should ask the residents of island nations like Tuvalu, Barbados, and Tonga whether they think that global warming would be a good thing. soulpatch

Better yet Bangladesh (a hitherto-peaceful Muslim nation), or Europe, which would have temperatures like Russia or Canada if the Gulf Stream shifted, even as the rest of the world warmed up.

The article should address sea level rise, particularly the question of what causes it. For example, how much sea level correlates with "greenhouse gas" emissions; also, to what extent natural glacial melting (unrelated to the greenhouse effect) is going on. --Uncle Ed

And, about Tuvalu, the National Tidal Facility (NTF) at Flinders University in South Australia, which is contracted under Australian aid to monitor sea level across the Pacific, shows no significant sea level rise. [2] (http://203.97.34.63/tuvalu7.htm) 1 mm a year would take 40 years to make an inch. --Uncle Ed

You seem to have really missed my point. You implied that there is no reason to suggest that global warming (assuming it exists) is a bad thing. I pointed out that a lot of people most definitely have a stake in the effects of global warming (assuming it exists). I did not address whether global warming exists or not; I simply responded to your suggestion that global warming might not be a bad thing (assuming it exists). Discussing data about Tuvalu sea levels is not relevant to the point I was raising.

(Since you brought it up, it might be worthwhile to see the opposing view on the data you cited--and the NTF, by the way, is not funded by the Australian government, but receives funding through "commercial consultancies with government and industry". A member of the Tuvalu government responded to the NTF report as follows: [3] (http://www.pacificislands.cc/pm42002/pmdefault.cfm?articleid=21)) There, now you have the both sides to the story.

Of course, none of this is germane to the discussion at hand, namely, whether anyone would consider the global warming to be a benign phenomenon. soulpatch

To add into article:

SALLIE BALIUNAS: "...the most important feature of the temperature record of the last 100 years is that most of the warming occurred before about 1940. But most of the greenhouse gases from human activities entered the atmosphere after 1940. That means most of the temperature rise of the last 100 years that occurred early in the century did not come from greenhouse gas activities because it came before these gases existed in the atmosphere. So the recent increase greenhouse gases cannot be the cause of the half-degree Centigrade warming or so that occurred early in the 20th century. Most of this warming must have been natural." [4] (http://www.ncpa.org/press/0929gwd)

This is absolute worthy-of-tenure-pulling nonsense. The consensus of ecologists and climate scientists is that the biggest release of greenhouse gase into the atmosphere was the 1870-1890 plowing of the Great Plains of North America - entirely consistent with the observation that most of the warming and thus the temperature rise happened early in the 20th century. This person is clearly not qualified to discuss this issue. In fact, most of the greenhouse gases from human activities entered the atmosphere BEFORE 1940, and only those from INDUSTRIAL activities entered the atmosphere largely thereafter.

(William M. Connolley 21:23 Mar 6, 2003 (UTC)) who wrote that nonsense? We have pretty good CO2 records that cover 1870-1890 and there is no big spike for this period, ergo no big (by modern industrial emission standards) CO2 release.

It's legitimate to criticize say the Kyoto Accord for not dealing with deforestation and release of soil gas due to plowing. But it is not in any way legitimate to say that global warming due to human activities is bunk 'because' of when most of it happened. Without good records of global temperatures and greenhouse gas levels before modern times, one can only go by the records of when areas were cleared and plowed, and how much greenhouse gas that gives off.

Alarmists in the media and the Clinton administration clearly have decided that the best way to win the global warming debate is by shouting down the opposition and demonizing them in the eyes of the public. But that is not dispassionate scientific debate; it is more like a "struggle meeting" during the Chinese Cultural Revolution. That's not how we can build a neutral Wikipedia article. --Uncle Ed

Ed - I've updated the structure - see above. Would that get your blessing? Martin

I'm still not too happy about the structure. It still presumes the truth of the GW theory and the "need" for a response to GW. A neutral article would first define global warming and give any evidence for it, then provide possible causes. It would also describe predicted effects (bad and good) and describe how people feel about these effects. It should then go on to list the various proposals, such as "study it a bit more till we're sure"; "assume GW is happening, is bad, and is preventable, and that the US should ratify the Kyoto Protocol"; as well as "there's not much GW going on, and another degree or so wouldn't hurt, but Kyoto would, so DON'T sign it".

There's really both a political and a scientific issue here. It would be good to separate the 2 issues. How about global warming science[?] and global warming politics[?] as 2 separate articles? Or let global warming be the science article, and Kyoto Protocol be the politics article?

I would just like this article to get finished without having to worry that (as Two16 hinted) someone's going to become so angry as to want to rip a hole in my body. --Uncle Ed 19:16 Feb 10, 2003 (UTC)

"first define global warming" - obviously. That goes in a standard intro bit
"give any evidence for it" - I was going to do this as part of "Rate of Global Warming". Also give any evidence against it, of course.
"then provide possible causes" - yep, as part of "causes of global warming" - important to emphasise that all the possible causes are only possible.
"also describe predicted effects (bad and good)" - under "consequences of ..."
"then go on to list the various proposals" - under "actions in response to". Obviously "further study" is an important action that I somehow forgot about. And it's important to note that doing nothing is an option.

It seems to me, Ed, that you're actually kind of where I am, but I think I need to do it to prove to you that it would work without underplaying your position. I'll faff around in Global warming/temp, and then you can compare before and after and see what y'all prefer. Martin

The GW page is now too long (>30k; wiki issues warnings).

I propose that a number of the subsections be cut into their own pages, preferrably the more controversial ones so that the main text could perhaps stabalise... I see discussions below about a nice new logical structure but is that actually going to happen?

William M. Connolley 14:32 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)

I've made a first draft of a new version (global warming/temp). Take a look, and see if you think it's logical... :) Martin

OK, but sections need cutting out. I've made a start by expanding, err, well essentially rewriting Historical temperature record. Skeptics may want to modify it somewhat, but note that the satellite data (and/or comparison to sfc record) stuff really deserves its own page. William M. Connolley 18:18 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)

Nice. I've made some changes (mostly copy+paste bits that you missed or decided to bin), but I'm not an expert, so revert heavily. I also summarised the article at the relevant part of global warming/temp - the next thing, I guess, is predicted temperature changes[?] to deal with how the earth's temperature is likely to change in the next 150 years. Martin

Look Ed, I don't want to get combative over this, but you really, really want to step outside and take a look at the countries that are in the front line of climate change before you make those glib assertions that a degree or two of warming might be "a good thing". That sort of ignorant, Euro/US-centric comment raises hackles in a way that's difficult to express without being uncivil. I pride myself on being restrained and understanding of cultural differences, but I live in a land that is already suffering severe consequences, and while I can live with the deniers (for every man has the right to his opinion), taking it to past mere denial to a "who cares" stance makes my blood boil. Please, knock it off. Tannin 20:23 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)

Sorry, Tannin. I should not have asserted that a degree or two of warming might be a good thing. Rather, I should have pointed out that some scientists have said so. I should have named them, and provided quotes and footnotes too. Moreover, the issue of how warming might affect various local areas needs to be in the article. If warming will be concentrated at the poles and Siberia, it won't hurt anyone. If, however, warming is in places which are already too warm, it obviously will hurt people! Then there's the question whether warmer air will accelerate the glacial melting (which began in the early 1800s) AND whether that will lead to sea level rise. Coastal communities and atolls will be flooded if there's too much sea level rise -- which wouldn't be good for them. How's your blood now, buddy? Cooling off? --Uncle Ed 20:34 Feb 12, 2003 (UTC)

Only somewhat. (Not having a handy satellite or a useful historical record to go by, these determinations are difficult to make precisely!) Europe, much (but not all) of China, and (possibly) the United States are unusual in that they have particularly rich soils and (in general) ample rain. Changes in climate patterns in many other parts of the world are much less likely to be benign. Australia and the west coast of South America are cases in point. Ignorant northern hemisphere "scientists" that make "good thing" comments for the benefit of their parochial audience without being aware of this do not deserve to have their foolishness reported. Tannin

Well, maybe not reported as gospel. How about "exposed"? You know, I was thinking seriously about expanding the flat earth article -- just to show clearly how the idea became popular and why it was finally discarded. Just as, someday, either global warming theory or global warming skepticism will be discarded. --Uncle Ed

I've removed the bit in "evidence against warming" about the 25% inc in Antarctica. As it stands, its nonsense, though the follow-up isn't. But sadly the follow-up doesn't make sense without the first text. If anyone knows what the original 25% text is supposed to mean, then by all means put it back, with refs.

(William M. Connolley 20:18 18 Jun 2003 (UTC)) Several edits, all tending to removed stuff that was (IMHO) unbalanced onto the skeptical side. Both Climate model and IPCC sections are really redundant as there now exist separate pages for these - so anything useful in these sections should be stripped out and put there.

While we're on IPCC, please note that (except for a few rare counterexamples) IPCC *doesn't do research itself* it synthesises other people work. So talking about IPCC running (GCM) climate models; or assembling temperature time series, is wrong.

I'm not sure how to include this, but the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization highlights extreme weather and links it to climate change: http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=421166 Vicki Rosenzweig 16:29 3 Jul 2003 (UTC)

The Indep report is distinctly dodgy. See thread on news:sci.environment if you can cope... The original WMO report might be better (one hopes so). The indep didn't seem to provide a link to it, oddly enough.

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