Encyclopedia > Revising opinions in statistics

  Article Content

Revising opinions in statistics

Researchers who use personal probability can proceed as follows:
  1. A statistical model for the data generating process is assumed. The model might specify that the data follows a normal distribution with an unknown mean.
  2. The researcher describes his opinion about the unknown mean as having a normal distribution centered at 10 with a standard deviation of 2. This would be called the researcher's prior distribution for the mean.
  3. With the likelihood function of the observed data and the probabilistic description of his opinion, the researcher can calculate (using Bayes' theorem) the appropriate opinion consistent with both sources of information. This is called the posterior distribution.

back to statistical theory -- applied statistics

All Wikipedia text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License

  Search Encyclopedia

Search over one million articles, find something about almost anything!
  Featured Article

... 1690s Years: 1640 1641 1642 1643 1644 1645 1646 1647 1648 1649 Events and Trends 1642: The outbreak of the English civil war 1648: Thirty Years' War ends. ...