John Craig

A friend of Newton, he wrote several minor works about the new calculus. He is mainly known for his book Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica (Mathematical Principles of Christian Theology), published in 1699. In this work, he presents a formula that (incorrectly) describes how the probability of a historical event depends on the number of primary witnesses, on the chain of transmission through secondary witnesses, on the elapsed time and on the spatial distance. Using this formula, Craig derived that the probability of the story of Christ would reach 0 in the year 3150. This year he interpreted as the second coming of Christ because of verse 18:8 in the Gospel of Luke.

His work was poorly received. Several later mathematicians complained about his imprecise use of probability and the unsupported derivation of his formula. Stigler in 1999 gave a more favorable interpretation, pointing out that some of his reasoning can be justified if his "probability" is interpreted as log-likelihood ratio.

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